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Will the UK's climate efforts survive Liz Truss?
9 reasons why she will most likely stick with Johnson's climate plan.
The new Cabinet cast list will alarm supporters of climate action, but political and economic realities means Liz Truss is unlikely to deviate much from Johnson's climate plan.
One of Westminster's most hard-line critics of climate policy, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is expected to take charge of the UK's energy and climate policies this week. JRM has made no secret of his Net Zero scepticism (or indeed his climate denialism, which he’s somewhat quieter about these days), recently using a speech promoting deregulation to say:
"Net zero is going to be a huge regulatory cost and that is an issue for the country to face and to face up to. If we were to have a ‘one in, one out’ or ‘one in, two out’ rule, you would end up excluding net zero, as we previously excluded EU regulation, and then you're tinkering at the edges because you're ignoring the biggest piece of regulation.”
Suella Braverman, who called for the Net Zero legislation to be "suspended" is likely to be made Home Secretary. Kemi Badenoch, who has branded Net Zero a "unilateral economic disarmament", will also probably join the Cabinet.
Other climate sceptic Truss allies, Lord Frost and John Redwood, are no longer expected to take up senior Ministerial roles but may continue to have her ear.
Frost argued Boris Johnson government's “totally unrealistic approach to climate and energy policy” should be one of the top priorities for change under Truss. In the past few days he called for the construction of new gas stations and even new coal-fired power stations (something ruled out by all the UK's main political parties over a decade ago). Ironically enough, he attacked offshore wind farms as "medieval" and argued "the current evidence does not support the assertion that we are in a climate ‘emergency’". Meanwhile, Redwood called for carbon taxes to be cut and echoed "more gas is the answer to a gas crisis".
It is naive to expect ambitious new climate policies in light of this line up. But I agree with Paul Waugh that Truss is still likely to largely stick with Johnson's climate plan.
Here are nine reasons why:
Promises. Liz Truss personally signed up to the Conservative Environment Network's leadership pledges, throwing her weight behind most of Johnson's signature green policies, including a promise to "double down" on the Net Zero target. It was a key reason why Turquoise Tories Zac Goldsmith and Chris Skidmore backed her. A total 180 seems improbable, given the most compelling motive to turn - bait to draw in the sceptical selectorate - has expired. Just yesterday Liz Truss used her interview with Laura Kuensberg to reiterate her support for renewable energy and Net Zero.
Cabinet climateers. Kwasi Kwarteng, the main architect of Johnson's 10 point plan for Net Zero and a vocal champion of putting renewable energy expansion at the heart of Britain's energy security strategy, is expected to be made Chancellor. Simon Clarke, once dubbed "Britain's greenest MP'' for coordinating cross-party efforts to secure the Net Zero target, will likely become Levelling Up Secretary. Neither is likely to agree to unpick the very policies they've spent the last couple of years campaigning to enact. (That said, given Truss' broader position on taxes, it will be interesting to see what happens to Kwarteng's proposals to introduce a new funding stream for hydrogen energy in the Energy Security Bill currently before MPs.)
Political maths. Boris Johnson, who remains greatly more popular with the party grassroots, already took a swipe at Truss over her support for more fracking, and is preparing to defend his climate legacy. Michael Gove has also spoken out over her plans to axe green levies. Theresa May is now leading a business alliance supporting climate policies and is unlikely to keep her head down either. Picking a fight with powerful backbenchers would be unwise in a context where most colleagues backed Sunak for the leadership and her "real majority" in the Commons is fairly narrow. “She’s got a solid majority of about ten,” one Whitehall insider told the Sunday Times. “She won’t be able to trust several dozen of her own MPs." The substantial pro-climate majority in the House of Lords could also prove to be a crucial line of defence, given peers can block any new policies that lack a mandate from the electorate.
Cost of living. The economics of clean energy have never been more strikingly obvious than during this massive cost of living crisis. As Johnson underlined in his final speech in office, "Offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas”. No wonder policy-makers in the UK and across Europe are trying to reform power markets so prices for households more accurately reflect the cheap cost of the growing share of green energy.
Fast sovereign energy. The energy security crisis demands homegrown supplies and fast - and there ain't anything faster or cheaper to deploy than renewables and insulation. It's why a race is on across the rest of Europe to deploy these solutions at scale, and why Truss ally Andrea Leadsom is campaigning for tougher building standards and an extension and expansion of the existing ECO energy efficiency programme.
Jobs. Clean tech industries are amongst the fastest growing parts of our economy, generating jobs in places like Teesside and the Midlands that will be crucial for Truss to defend at the next general election. Insulation schemes stand to save people money in these areas the most. No wonder "Red Wall" Tory Mayors Street and Houchen have both amongst the most high-profile supporters of climate policies. Street said Truss' support for Net Zero was a key reason why he's backing her.
Electoral imperative. Think tank Onward, with polling firm Public First, conducted a major look at the climate and Net Zero attitudes of the Tory electoral coalition during the leadership contest. They concluded, "The next Conservative Leader will struggle to rebuild an election-winning voter coalition without strong leadership on net zero." Onward's director Will Tanner explained, "Most Conservative voters, and an overwhelming share of voters the party needs to win over, want bolder action on net zero, especially through investment in wind." (Truss can be sure Starmer and Reeves will want to win over these voters, too, with their flagship policy of £28bn clean energy investment.)
America. Truss will be vulnerable to criticism from the Biden administration if she u-turns on international commitments Britain has made with regard to climate targets and climate-related finance for countries like flood-hit Pakistan. Pitting Britain against America is not a position any Prime Minister would take lightly. She will surely be wary of the potential for a high-profile protest resignation in her first months from COP President Alok Sharma, which could also damage her international standing.
Extreme weather. With a third of Pakistan under water, Europe coming out of the worst drought in more than 500 years, and record breaking ice melt across the Arctic, any attempt to divorce herself from these realities would risk leaving her looking a bit deranged.
It seems to me Truss' battle with the environmental movement is most likely to occur over her policies towards the countryside, given her intentions to further weaken nature and river protections, impose fracking, and liberalise planning and trade rules, irrespective of the cost to the climate or to England's natural environment. These moves are likely to be controversial, particularly in many Lib Dem marginals.
Having all but certainly successfully navigated her way to Downing Street, Liz Truss should have the political savvy to overcome her underlying libertarian ideological instincts and instead heed the lessons from Australia where the Liberal Party strayed too far from their voters and lost a general election.
Very nice analysis. The nine points all ring true. I'd add that the machinery of government makes it hugely challenging to unpick a policy complex like 'net zero', which has tendrils in every nook and cranny of the state. Less positively, JRM as SoS (and his fellow travellers in Govt) diminishes the prospects of the UK taking climate leadership positions in the near term. For all its myriad faults, the BJ govt was pretty sound at that.